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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/1117Z from Region 2936 (N17W62). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb,
06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 03/1319Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 03/0933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 03/0853Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 370 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 127 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 128/130/125 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 026/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 011/012-016/020-012/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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