Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 January 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (07 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 06/0715Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 910 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jan, 08 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
Class M05%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jan 094
  Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 094/096/096
  90 Day Mean        06 Jan 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  005/005-006/005-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%40%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Reykjavik
Kiruna

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (543.1 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (20.56nT), the direction is moderately South (-11.8nT).

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