Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (07 Jan) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 406 km/s at 06/0715Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
05/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 910 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jan, 08 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (09 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 094 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 094/096/096 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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