Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/0247Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (27 Oct) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 374 km/s at 26/0508Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
25/2333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 152 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 109 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 108/110/110 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 005/005-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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