Viewing archive of Monday, 1 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 02 1605 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
01/0145Z from Region 2887 (S27W64). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov,
04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 31/2206Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 01/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 01/2049Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 01/0935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 285 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Nov, 03 Nov) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 98 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 98/98/98 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 012/010-005/007-030/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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