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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 31/0706Z from Region 2891 (N16E15). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 31/1905Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 31/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 31/1136Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11 pfu at 30/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 103
  Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 103/102/100
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  024/042
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  013/020-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm60%25%10%

All times in UTC

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