Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 November 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 660 km/s at 17/0551Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/0016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 079
  Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  006/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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