Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 17/2134Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 18/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 365 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 082 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 080/080/082 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 007/008-009/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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