Viewing archive of Friday, 19 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 531 km/s at 18/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
19/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
19/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 642 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 079 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 078/080/080 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 009/012-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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