Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 16/1527Z from Region 2909 (S21E58). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (17 Dec) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 558 km/s at 16/1123Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/0942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M25%20%15%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 118
  Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 118/118/118
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  009/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%15%

All times in UTC

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