Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 23/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 087 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 090/090/092 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1662Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2222AR4048 114New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 36Filaments and prominences 750
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
10:00 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 78GW at 10:32 UTC
04:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 04:05 UTC
03:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) Threshold Reached: 02:59 UTC
01:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 00:51 UTC
Friday, 4 April 2025
23:30 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:17 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/01 | M2.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/04 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 148 +13.8 |
| Last 30 days | 130.9 -15.2 |