Viewing archive of Monday, 10 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12
Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 10/0650Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/0304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 232 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 102 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 102/105/110 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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