Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/0838Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan,
13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 422 km/s at 11/0133Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/2011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/1438Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 123 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 100 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 102/102/104 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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