Viewing archive of Monday, 7 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/1239Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Feb,
09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 06/2258Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6345 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (09 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (10
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 127 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 125/122/120 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 006/005-010/014-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 60% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |