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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 07/1239Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 06/2258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6345 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (09 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Feb 127
  Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 125/122/120
  90 Day Mean        07 Feb 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  012/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Feb  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  006/005-010/014-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%45%40%
Minor storm01%25%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm15%60%70%

All times in UTC

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