Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/2332Z from Region 2936 (N17E05). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 30/0159Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 30/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/2053Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 859 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (01 Feb) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (02
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 130 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 132/132/135 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 006/005-010/015-028/045
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 30% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 30% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 70% | 85% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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