Viewing archive of Monday, 3 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class or M-class flare on day one (04 Jan)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 03/0624Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/0929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 586 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 084 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 084/082/080 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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