Viewing archive of Monday, 3 January 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Jan 03 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Jan 2022	088	010
04 Jan 2022	088	006
05 Jan 2022	087	003

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2918 (Catania group 96) has now rotated over the west limb. There were two remaining numbered active regions on disc at the start of the period NOAA region 2916 (Catania group 97) and NOAA AR 2922, both have shown signs of decay. By the end of the period, NOAA 2922 decayed into a plage region. Two new regions are also expected to rotate on to the solar disk in the next days. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with C-class flares likely and a small chance for M-class flares from NOAA AR 2916.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to increase to levels near this threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The Solar wind speed oscillated around 500 km/s for the first half of the period and then increased to values over 620 km/s at 05 UT Jan 03 before again decreasing. The total magnetic field magnitude ranged between 3 and 8 nT, with a variable Bz component. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) at the start of the period but oscilated between the positive and negative sectors for the second half of the period. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline toward slow Solar wind conditions over the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-4) and are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	089
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	028 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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