Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 536 km/s at 23/0708Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
23/0544Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/0509Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 451 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (26 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 096 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 006/005-005/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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