Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 24/0443Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 24/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/2309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 917 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27 Feb) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (26 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 092 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 005/005-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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