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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 25/0535Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 897 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Feb, 27 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Feb 096
  Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 095/094/093
  90 Day Mean        25 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Feb  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  007/008-008/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%30%40%

All times in UTC

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