Viewing archive of Friday, 28 January 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/1735Z from Region 2936 (N17E23). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 28/0003Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 493 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 113
  Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 114/118/118
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  010/012-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%30%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (507.6 km/sec.)
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.89nT).

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