Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
22/1242Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 22/1258Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 22/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 325 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Mar, 24 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 106 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 010/012-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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