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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 17/2234Z from Region 2992 (S31W76). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 18/0234Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/0926Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1646 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Apr 135
  Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  009/010-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm30%30%30%

All times in UTC

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