Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/0008Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 15/0815Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 14/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
15/0026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (16 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 May) and quiet levels on day three (18
May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 154 Predicted 16 May-18 May 154/152/152 90 Day Mean 15 May 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 013/014-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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