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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 15/0008Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 15/0815Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (16 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 May) and quiet levels on day three (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 154
  Predicted   16 May-18 May 154/152/152
  90 Day Mean        15 May 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  009/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  013/014-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm45%25%20%

All times in UTC

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