Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/2049Z from Region 2993 (N28, Lo=245). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21
Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 18/2321Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2218 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 135 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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