Viewing archive of Monday, 28 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
28/1129Z from Region 2975 (N13W12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (29 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 28/1016Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 27/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
27/2106Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 18 pfu at 28/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 362 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar)
and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (31 Mar). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Mar) and have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 156 Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 28 Mar 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 015/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 008/008-007/008-023/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 70% |
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