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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 28/1129Z from Region 2975 (N13W12). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (29 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 28/1016Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/2106Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18 pfu at 28/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 362 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (31 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M35%30%30%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton99%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 156
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  015/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  008/008-007/008-023/032

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%35%
Major-severe storm01%01%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm25%30%70%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:37 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-64nT)

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