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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 29/0111Z from Region 2975 (N13W25). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (30 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 28/2201Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/0815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1550Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 28/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 570 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Mar), active to severe storm levels on day two (31 Mar) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (01 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Mar), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (31 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
Class M50%35%35%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton20%15%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Mar 149
  Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  011/014-032/056-025/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%25%
Minor storm30%20%35%
Major-severe storm15%45%25%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm70%80%70%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 01:40 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB
Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Tórshavn

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Saskatoon, SK
Trondheim

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB, Thunder Bay, ON, Winnipeg, MB
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.7nT), the direction is slightly South (-1.72nT).

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