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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/0402Z from Region 2993 (N19W45). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 538 km/s at 25/2043Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
24/2151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
25/0402Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 390 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28
Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 157 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 160/160/140 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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