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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
22/1431Z from Region 3017 (N14W14). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May,
25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 22/1807Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 22/0758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 952 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25
May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 165 Predicted 23 May-25 May 165/163/162 90 Day Mean 22 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 005/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
NuukThe solar wind speed is currently moderately high (634 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (25.56 p/cm3)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (25.56 p/cm3)
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| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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