Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 March 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 30/1737Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 30/0223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/2041Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 29/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
Class M50%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton20%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Mar 151
  Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        30 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  009/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  032/058-025/032-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm20%35%05%
Major-severe storm45%25%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm80%70%30%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:37 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-63nT)

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