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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 31/1835Z from Region 2975 (N13W52). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 31/1148Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 31/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 31/0522Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 31/0630Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Apr). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (01 Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton65%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Mar 149
  Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 150/145/130
  90 Day Mean        31 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Mar  024/043
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  025/032-008/010-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%45%
Minor storm35%05%20%
Major-severe storm25%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%10%
Minor storm20%25%35%
Major-severe storm70%30%55%

All times in UTC

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