Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
02/1744Z from Region 2975 (N15W78). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (03 Apr) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (04 Apr, 05
Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 02/0342Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 02/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 02/0102Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 32 pfu at 02/1600Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr). Protons greater
than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (03 Apr) and have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (04 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 70% | 35% | 25% |
| Class X | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 90% | 25% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 143 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 130/120/115 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 011/015-007/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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