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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0241Z from Region 2978 (S17W0*). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 10/1350Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 10/0248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 10/0317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 623 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet levels on
days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 101 Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 098/095/095 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 017/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 024/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 011/012-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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