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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1942Z from Region 2994 (N14W12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 23/1422Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 533 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 160 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 008/008-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/23 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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