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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 22/1325Z from Region 2993 (N19W04). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 22/1439Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0812Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 345 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 163
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 160/160/160
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  010/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%30%30%

All times in UTC

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