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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 20/0745Z from Region 3014 (N24W09). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 20/1541Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/1540Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 225 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and quiet levels on day three (23 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (22 May, 23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 166
  Predicted   21 May-23 May 160/162/165
  90 Day Mean        20 May 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  007/010-007/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm30%30%20%

All times in UTC

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