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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/0353Z from Region 3031 (S25W30). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 16/2058Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/1203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 460 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (19 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
Class M30%25%25%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jun 147
  Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 146/146/144
  90 Day Mean        16 Jun 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  018/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jun  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  008/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%25%20%

All times in UTC

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