Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0922Z from Region 3017 (S17W86). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (25 May, 26 May) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 442 km/s at 24/0115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 968 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (25 May) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (26 May, 27 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (25 May, 26
May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| Class M | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 147 Predicted 25 May-27 May 146/144/140 90 Day Mean 24 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 006/005-010/012-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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