Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 June 2022

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1225Z from Region 3029 (S17E48). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 300 km/s at 05/0117Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1854Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1704Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5732 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).

III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun

Class M	05%	05%	05%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       05 Jun 099
  Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        05 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jun  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	10%	10%
Minor storm	10%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	30%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	40%	10%	10%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.89nT), the direction is North (8.7nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-98nT)

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