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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0105Z from Region 3004 (S13W85). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May,
12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 09/0552Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 09/0408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 May, 11 May)
and quiet levels on day three (12 May).
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 117 Predicted 10 May-12 May 116/118/120 90 Day Mean 09 May 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 008/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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