Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 July 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/1539Z from Region 3055 (S16W52). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 16/0654Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0552Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3341 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
Class M45%45%40%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jul 176
  Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%35%35%

All times in UTC

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