Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 July 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Jul 28 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Jul 2022	097	007
29 Jul 2022	097	029
30 Jul 2022	097	026

Bulletin

X-ray flux remained below C level throughout the period. All pre-existing regions were stable or in decay. NOAA active regions 3065, 3066 and 3067 have lost nearly all their spots. The new active region in the south-east (causing the C3 flare yesterday) appears a simple bipolar region. Flaring at C level is not very likely but remains quite possible over the next days.

A filament located to the south-east of NOAA active region 3066 erupted around 17:08UTC, but there are no associated signatures in coronagraph data. The CME signatures to the West seen in SoHO LASCO C2 are believed to rather be related to eruptions from the south-western hemisphere and the far side. Hence, no Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data. The filament located south of NOAA active region 3062 (nearby the erupting filament mentioned above) seems to remain stable.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux just briefly reached above the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels following a slow declining trend.

A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north of the equator that crossed the central meridian on July 26 is expected to influence Solar wind from tomorrow onwards.

Slow Solar wind conditions were recorded (Solar wind speed around 400km/s) but with a somewhat enhanced interplanetary magnetic field strength varying between 5-10nT. The north-south component of the magnetic field varied slowly with peaks of Bz down to -8nT. The interplanetary magnetic field is connected to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). Slow Solar wind conditions are expected over the remainder of the day and into tomorrow. Tomorrow July 29 perturbations may be expected related to the interaction region and high speed stream from the isolated coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 26.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2-3 and local K Dourbes 1-3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected today and into tomorrow, with from tomorrow onwards active periods possible associated to the interaction region and high speed stream from the isolated coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 26.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 047, based on 26 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	068
10cm solar flux	098
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	059 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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