Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
28/1619Z from Region 3088 (S27W87). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (29 Aug) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 28/0734Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 27/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/0924Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 12 pfu at 27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (31 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (29 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 252 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 126/120/120 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 020/030-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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