Viewing archive of Friday, 2 September 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 02/1716Z from Region 3089 (S23W46). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (04 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Sep 130
  Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 124/124/120
  90 Day Mean        02 Sep 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  012/015-021/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%40%
Minor storm15%40%25%
Major-severe storm01%20%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm30%65%45%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Saturday, 22 March 2025
23:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:37 UTC

alert


Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March

Yesterday around 16 UTC an M1.2 solar flare took place around sunspot region 4028. The solar flare triggered a filament eruption which erupted from the center of the earth-facing solar disk.

alert

Read more
12:18 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 75GW at 13:10 UTC


03:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 03:35 UTC

alert


03:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) Threshold Reached: 02:59 UTC

alert


Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/02/23X2.0
Last M-flare2025/03/21M1.2
Last geomagnetic storm2025/03/22Kp6- (G2)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2025154.6 +17.6
March 2025142 -12.6
Last 30 days141.3 -10.4

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024X1.12
22024M5.2
32024M3.8
42024M3.8
51998M3.17
DstG
11969-164G4
22023-125G3
31989-106G2
41966-98G3
52024-79G2
*since 1994

Social networks