Viewing archive of Friday, 2 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1716Z from Region 3089 (S23W46). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 512 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
02/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (04 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (05 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 130 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 124/124/120 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 012/015-021/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 40% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 65% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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