Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
11/1438Z from Region 3098 (N18W22). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 10/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0913Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 21637 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 152 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 150/148/143 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 006/005-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, SodankyläKirkenes, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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