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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/1810Z from Region 3110 (N16E72). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep,
26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 23/2032Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/0721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 372 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 146 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 146/142/148 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 014/018-011/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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