Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
22/1134Z from Region 3105 (S17E32). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep,
25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 461 km/s at 21/2108Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
21/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/1114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 420 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Sep) and
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 137 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 138/130/130 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 016/020-013/015-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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