Viewing archive of Friday, 26 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
26/1214Z from Region 3089 (S21E44). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 26/1200Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3604 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Aug). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28
Aug, 29 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 119 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 120/118/116 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 007/008-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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