Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
20/1653Z from Region 3122 (N26W92). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Oct,
22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 20/1733Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 20/1145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/1217Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1290 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 116 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
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| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |