Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 October 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Oct 20 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Oct 2022	113	012
21 Oct 2022	110	006
22 Oct 2022	109	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with flare of largest X-ray output being the C5.3-class flare from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3122, peak time 20 October 03:26 UTC. NOAA AR 3126 has slightly developed over the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are expected while M-class flares are possible.

From the Coronal Mass Ejections observed in the last 24 hours none is currently believed to be Earth-directed. The southern coronal hole with negative polarity is currently at the solar meridian. An associated high speed stream can be expected about 23-24 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux below the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to be about threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) parameters continued the gradual return to background levels. The SW speed gradually dropped further 390 km/s over the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) was around 5 nT, while its Bz component ranged between -5 to 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun. The solar wind parameters could become enhanced over the next 24 hours, in the possibility the the high speed stream associated with the coronal hole that crossed central meridian on 17 October arrives.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 0-2) over the last 24 hours. In the next 24 hours the conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a very slight chance of active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 032, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	057
10cm solar flux	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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