Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/0047Z from Region 3107 (S28W25). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (29 Sep) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (30 Sep,
01 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 27/2202Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (30 Sep) and minor storm to major storm levels
on day three (01 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day one (29 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 135 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 033/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 007/008-014/020-038/060
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 45% | 75% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Strong far side CME 329Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1749Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 9Filaments and prominences 595Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1351
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |